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COVID-19: New data suggest Davao Region has successfully flattened the curve

The COVID-19 cases in Davao region is on a downward trends.

This is what Doctor Felix C. Chavez Jr. has eloquently articulated in his recent Facebook post.

Here's his full analysis:

COVID STATUS UPDATE IN DAVAO REGION: April 14, 2020
1. After April 4, the Growth Rate begins to slow down and started to drop below 5 percent. The prediction line shows a decreasing growth rate pattern (see Figure 1). The dwindling growth rate can be attributed to contact rates decreasing in time as a result of ECQ.

2. There is a slowing down of infection rate as evident in the flattened graph (see Figure 2). It can be noted that no new cases have been reported from April 12 to April 13. However, a small spike on April 14 but the rate is not drastic. Accordingly, this finding suggest that the epidemic is already manageable.

3. Estimated datums (SIR MODEL Figure 3)

Start of acceleration 26-Mar-2020
Turning point 30-Mar-2020
Start of steady growth 02-Apr-2020
Start of ending phase (plateau) 07-Apr-2020

Red represents fast growing phase, Yellow is the transition to the steady-state phase, and Green represents the ending phase (plateau).
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Notes:

1. When we add the median incubation period of 5.2 days (Lauer et al., 2020) including a possible delay between the occurrences of symptoms and going to the hospital which is approximately 2 to 3 days, we would expect a drop of daily growth rate 7 to 8 days later after 4 April (Start of ECQ). With this, it is expected that the INITIAL impact of ECQ is on April 11-12 and the NEXT impact will be on April 19-20.

2. Ending early the ECQ is not recommended as it may cause unexpected new outbreak. Hence, the recent small spike suggest that a new transmission can still be probable. Contact tracing of suspected individuals is advised.

3. Looking at the bigger picture, the LGU may start to plan exit strategies with caution.

Despite this trend, experts also advise LGUs in Davao not to prematurely lift the quarantine measures being implemented in the region.

Due to this, the Davao City government announced this afternoon it is heeding the advice of experts and will extend the Enhance Community Quarantine (ECQ) being implemented in the city.

Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, in a radio interview, disclosed that all cities within the Davao Region will also implement the same measure.

Davao City LGU is yet to announce the specifics of the new measures.

Photo courtesy of Doctor Felix C. Chavez Jr., Bio, MSci, PhD

COVID-19: New data suggest Davao Region has successfully flattened the curve COVID-19: New data suggest Davao Region has successfully flattened the curve Reviewed by AsianPolicy.Press on 7:20:00 AM Rating: 5

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